| War And Peace  War and Peace (Russian: Война и мир, Voyna i mir) is a novel by Leo Tolstoy, first published from 1865 to 1869 in Russkii Vestnik (Russian: Русский Вестник, "Russian Messenger"), which tells the story of Russian society during the Napoleonic Era. It is usually described as one of Tolstoy's two major masterpieces (the other being Anna Karenina) as well as one of the world's greatest novels. War and Peace offered a new kind of fiction, with a great many characters caught up in a plot that covered nothing less than the grand subjects indicated by the title, combined with the equally large topics of youth, marriage, age, and death. Though it is often called a novel today, it broke so many conventions of the form that it was not considered a novel in its time. Indeed, Tolstoy himself considered Anna Karenina (1878) to be his first attempt at a novel in the European sense. War and Peace depicts a huge cast of characters, both historical and fictional, Russians and non-Russians, the majority of whom are introduced in the first book. The scope of the novel is extremely vast, but the narration focuses mainly on five or six characters whose differing personalities and experiences provide the impetus to the story, with mutual interactions leading up to, around and following the Napoleonic war. Book oneThe novel begins in the Russian city of Saint Petersburg, at a soirée given in July 1805 by Anna Pavlovna Scherer — the maid of honour and confidante to the queen mother Maria Feodorovna. The main players and aristocratic families of the novel are made known here. Pierre Bezukhov is the illegitimate son of a wealthy count who is dying of a stroke. Pierre becomes unexpectedly embroiled in a tussle for his inheritance. Educated abroad in France, with his mother dead, Pierre is essentially kindhearted, but is socially awkward owing to his goodhearted, open nature, and finds it difficult to integrate into the Petersburg society. Pierre's friend, the intelligent and sardonic Prince Andrei Bolkonsky, the husband of a charming wife Lise, also visits the soireé. Finding Petersburg society unctuous and starting to find married life little comfort as well, he chooses to be an aide-de-camp to Prince Mikhail Kutuzov in their coming war against Napoleon. Tolstoy then switches to Moscow, Russia's ancient city, as a contrast to Saint Petersburg. The Rostov family will be one of the main narrative players of the novel. The Moscow Count Ilya Rostov family has four adolescent children. Young Natasha is supposedly in love with Boris, a disciplined boyish officer and a relative. Nikolai pledges his teenage love to Sonya, his younger cousin. The eldest child of the Rostov family, Vera, is cold and somewhat haughty but has a good prospective marriage in a German officer, Berg. Petya is the youngest of the Rostov family; like his brother he is impetuous and eager to join the army when of age. The heads of the family, Count Ilya Rostov and Countess Natalya Rostova, are an affectionate couple but forever worried about their disordered finances. At Bald Hills, the Bolkonskys' country estate, Prince Andrei leaves his pregnant wife with his eccentric father Prince Nikolai Andreivitch Bolkonsky and devoutly religious sister Maria Bolkonskaya. He leaves for war. The first page of War and Peace in an early editionThe second part opens with descriptions of the impending Russian-French war preparations. At the Schöngrabern engagement, Nikolai Rostov, who is now conscripted as ensign in a squadron of hussars, has his first baptism of fire in battle. He meets Prince Andrei whom he does not really like. Like all young soldiers he is attracted by Tsar Alexandr’s charisma. However Nikolai gambles recklessly and socializes with the lisping Denisov and the ruthless Dolokhov. Book TwoBook Two begins with Nikolai Rostov briefly returning home to Moscow on home leave in early 1806. Nikolai finds the Rostov family facing financial ruin due to poor estate management. With Denisov he spends an eventful winter home. Natasha has blossomed into a beautiful young girl. Denisov proposes to her but is rejected. Although his mother pleads with Nikolai to find himself a good financial prospect in marriage, Nikolai refuses to accede to his mother's request. He promises to marry his childhood sweetheart, the orphaned, penniless cousin Sonya. If there is a central character to War and Peace it is Pierre Bezukhov, who, upon receiving an unexpected inheritance, is suddenly burdened with the responsibilities and conflicts of a Russian nobleman. He then enters into marriage with Prince Kuragin's beautiful and immoral daughter Hélène (Ëlena), against his own better judgement. He is continually helpless in the face of his wife's numerous affairs, has a duel with one of her lovers, and is faced with anguish as all this happens. He later joins the Freemasons but becomes embroiled in some of the Freemasonry's politicking. Much of Book Two concerns his struggles with his passions and his spiritual conflicts to be a better man. Now a rich aristocrat, his former carefree behavior vanishes and he enters upon a philosophical quest particular to Tolstoy: how should one live a moral life in an ethically imperfect world? The question constantly baffles and confuses Pierre. He attempts to free his peasants, but ultimately achieves nothing of note. Pierre is vividly contrasted with the intelligent and ambitious Prince Andrei Bolkonsky. At the Battle of Austerlitz, Andrei is inspired by a vision of glory to lead a charge of a straggling army. He suffers a near fatal artillery wound which renders him unconscious. At the face of death Andrei realizes all his former ambitions are pointless and his former hero, Napoleon (who rescues him in a horseback excursion to the battlefield), is apparently as vain as himself. Prince Andrei recovers from his injuries in a military hospital, and returns home, only to find his wife Lise dying during childbirth. He is struck by his guilty conscience for not treating Lise better when she was alive. Burdened with nihilistic disillusionment, Prince Andrei lives anonymously in his estate until he is led to a philosophical argument with Pierre one day. When Pierre visits his estate he poses the question: where is God in this amoral world? Pierre points to panentheism and an afterlife. Young Natasha meets Andrei during her very first ball, and briefly reinvigorates Andrei with her lively vitality. Andrei believes he has found purpose in life again. However the couple's immediate plan to marry has to be postponed with a year-long engagement. When Prince Andrei leaves for his military engagements, Elena and her handsome brother Anatole conspire for Anatole to seduce and dishonor the young, still immature and now beautiful Natasha Rostova. They bait her with plans of an elopement. Thanks to Sonya and Pierre, this plan fails, yet, for Pierre, it is the cause of an important meeting with Natasha. He realizes he has now fallen in love with Natasha. During the time when the Great Comet of 1811–2 streaks the sky, life appears to begin anew for Pierre. Book ThreeNatasha breaks off her engagement with Andrei. Shamed by her near-seduction, she has a very serious illness and, with the help of her family; Pierre; and religious faith, manages to tide through this dark period of her life. Meanwhile the whole of Russia is affected by the coming showdown between Napoleon's troops and the Russian army. Pierre convinces himself Napoleon is the Antichrist in Revelation through numerology. The old prince Bolkonsky dies from a stroke. In Moscow, Petya manages to snatch a loose piece of the Tsar's biscuit outside the Cathedral of the Assumption; he finally convinces his parents to allow him to conscript. Meanwhile Nikolai unexpectedly acts as a white knight to the beleaguered Maria Bolkonskaya, whose father's death has left her in the mercy of an estate of hostile, rebelling peasants. Struck by Maria, whom he is seeing for the first time, Nikolai reconsiders marriage and finds Maria's devotion, consideration, and inheritance extremely attractive. But he is restricted by his earlier, youthful pledge to Sonya, and hesitates to woo Maria. As Napoleon pushes through Russia, Pierre decides to leave Moscow and to watch the Battle of Borodino from a vantage point next to a Russian artillery crew. After watching for a time, he begins to join in carrying ammunition. From within the turmoil he experiences first-hand the death and destruction of war. The battle becomes a horrible slaughter for both armies and ends up a standoff. The Russians, however, have won a moral victory by standing up to Napoleon's seemingly invincible army. Having suffered huge losses and for strategic reasons, the Russian army withdraws the next day, allowing Napoleon to march on to Moscow. Book FourBook Four climaxes Napoleon's invasion of Russia. When Napoleon's Grand Army occupies an abandoned and burning Moscow, Pierre takes off on a quixotic mission to assassinate Napoleon. He becomes an anonymous man in all the chaos, shedding his responsibilities by wearing peasant clothes and shunning his duties and lifestyle. The only person he sees while in this garb is Natasha, who recognizes him, and he in turn realizes the full scope of his love for her. His plan fails, and he is captured in Napoleon's headquarters as a prisoner of war after saving a child from a burning building and assaulting a French legionnaire for attacking a woman. He becomes friends with his cell-mate Platòn Karataev, a peasant with a saintly demeanor, who is incapable of malice. In Karataev Pierre finally finds what he is looking for, an honest, "rounded" person who is totally without pretense. Karataev is unlike those from the Petersburg aristocratic society, and also notably a member of the working class, with whom Pierre finds meaning in life simply by living and interacting with him. After witnessing French soldiers sacking Moscow and shooting Russian civilians arbitrarily, Pierre is forced to march with the Grand Army during its disastrous retreat from Moscow owing to the harsh winter. After months of trial and tribulation — during which Karataev is capriciously shot by the French — Pierre is later freed by a Russian raiding party after a small skirmish with the French that sees the young Petya Rostov killed in action. Meanwhile Andrei, wounded during Napoleon’s invasion, is taken in as a casualty cared for by the fleeing Rostovs. He is reunited with Natasha and sister Maria before the end of the war. Having lost all will to live after forgiving Natasha, he dies, much like the death scene at the end of The Death of Ivan Ilych. As the novel draws to a close, Pierre’s wife Elena dies (sometime during the last throes of Napoleon’s invasion); and Pierre is reunited with Natasha, while the victorious Russians rebuild Moscow. Natasha speaks of Prince Andrei’s death and Pierre of Karataev’s. Both are aware of a growing bond with each other in their bereavement. Matchmade by Princess Marya, Pierre finds love at last and, revealing his love after being released from his former wife’s death, marries Natasha. EpiloguesThe first epilogue begins with the wedding of Pierre and Natasha, in 1813. It is the last happy event for the Rostov family which is going through a transition. Count Ilya Rostov dies soon after, leaving the eldest son Nikolai to take charge of the debt-ridden estate. Nikolai finds himself with the near-impossible task of maintaining the family on the verge of bankruptcy. His pride almost gets in the way of him, but Nikolai finally accedes to his mother's wish and marries the now-rich Marya Bolkonskaya in winter 1813, both out of feeling and out of the necessity to save his family from ruin. Nikolai Rostov and Marya then move to Bald Hills with his mother and Sonya, whom he supports for the rest of their life. Buoyed on by his wife's funds, Nikolai pays off all his family's debts. They also raise Prince Andrei's orphaned son, Nikolai Bolkonsky. Like in all marriages there are minor squabbles but the couples – Pierre and Natasha, Nikolai and Marya – remain devoted to their spouses. Pierre and Natasha visit Bald Hills in 1820, much to the jubilation of everyone concerned. There is a hint in the closing chapters that the idealistic, boyish Nikolai Bolkonsky (15-year-old in 1820) and Pierre would both become part of the Decembrist Uprising. The first epilogue concludes with Nikolai Bolkonsky promising he would do something which even his late father "would be satisfied…" (presumably as a revolutionary in the Decembrist revolt). The second epilogue sums up Tolstoy’s views on history, free will and in what ways the two may interact to cause major events in humankind. in a long, partially historical and partly philosophical essay, where the narrator discusses how man cannot be wholly free, or wholly determined by "necessity" and this is primarily down to God. Tolstoy's view of historyTolstoy does not subscribe to the "great man" view of history: the notion that history is the story of strong personalities that move events and shape societies. He believes that events shape themselves, caused by social and other forces; and great men take advantage of them, changing them but not creating them. As an example, he compares Napoleon and Kutuzov. Napoleon, the Great Man, thought he had created the French Revolution, but actually he had simply happened along at the right time and usurped it. Kutuzov was more modest and more effective. Napoleon believed that he could control the course of a battle through sending orders through couriers, while Kutuzov admits that all he could do was to plan the initial disposition and then let subordinates direct the field of action. Typically, Napoleon would be frantically sending out orders throughout the course of a battle, carried by dashing young lieutenants—which were often misinterpreted or made irrelevant by changing conditions—while Kutuzov would sit quietly in his tent and often sleep through the battle. Ultimately, Napoleon chooses wrongly, opting to march on to Moscow and occupy it for five fatal weeks, when he would have been better off destroying the Russian army in a decisive battle. Instead, his numerically superior army dissipate on a huge scale, thanks to large scale looting and pillaging, and lack of direction for his force. General Kutuzov believes time to be his best ally, and refrains from engaging the French. He moves his army out of Moscow, and the residents evacuate the city: the nobles flee to their country estates, taking their treasures with them; lesser folk flee wherever they can, taking food and supplies. The French march into Moscow and disperse to find housing and supplies, then ultimately destroy themselves as they accidentally burn the city to the ground and then abandon it in late Fall, then limp back toward the French border in the teeth of a Russian Winter. They are all but destroyed by a final Cossack attack as they straggle back toward the west. Tolstoy observes that Kutuzuv didn't burn Moscow as a "scorched earth policy," nor did Napoleon; but after taking the city, Napoleon moved his troops in, to find housing more or less by chance in the abandoned houses: generals appropriated the grander houses, lesser men took what was left over; units were dispersed, and the chain of command dissolved into chaos. Quickly, his tightly disciplined army dissolved into a disorganized rabble; and of course, if one leaves a wooden city in the hands of strangers who naturally use fire to warm themselves, cook food, and smoke pipes, and have not learned how particular Russian families safely used their stoves and lamps (some of which they had taken with them as they fled the city), fires will break out. In the absence of an organized fire department, the fires will spread. As support for his outlook on history, Tolstoy concludes that the city was destroyed not by the freewill of either Napoleon or Kutuzov, but as an inevitable consequence of battle-weary foreign invaders occupying an abandoned wooden city. 20世纪是人类有记载的历史上最杀人不眨眼的世纪。战争所造成的或者与战争有关的死亡总人数估计为1.87亿，相当于1913年世界人口的10%以上。如果算作是从1914年开始，这是一个战争几乎不间断的世纪，其中某地没有发生有组织的武装冲突的时期很少也很短暂。占据世纪主导地位的是世界大战：即国家或国家联盟之间的战争。从1914年到1945年的时期可以被看作一场单一的“30年战争”，仅仅被20年代的一段间歇所打断——在日本人于1922年最终从苏联远东撤退和1931年对满洲的进攻之间的时期。几乎紧随其后的是大约40年的冷战，这一时期符合霍布斯的战争定义，即其“不是仅仅包括战斗或者战争行为，而且包括一段时间，其中通过战斗来进行斗争的意志得到了充分的表达。”一个可以辩论的问题是，从冷战结束以来，美军在世界各地所参与的行动在多大程度上构成了这个世界大战时代的延续。然而毫无疑义的是，20世纪90年代充满了欧洲、非洲和西亚及东亚的正式与非正式的军事冲突。世界整体来说从1914年以来一直没有和平，现在也是一样。尽管如此，这个世纪不能被笼统地来对待，不论是从年代上还是从地理上来说。按照年代顺序，它分为三个阶段：以德国为中心的世界大战时代（1914年到1945年）、两个超级大国对峙的时代（1945年到1989年）和传统的国际实力体系终结以来的时代。我将把这些时期称为第一、第二和第三时期。从地理上讲，军事行动的影响一直是十分不匀称的。除了一个例外（1932年到1935年的查科战争），西半球（美洲）在20世纪里没有重大的国家间战争（与内战相区分）。敌人的军事行动很少触及这些领土：因此，9月11日世界贸易中心和五角大楼被炸才令人震惊。从1945年以来，国家间的战争也从欧洲消失了，而在此之前，欧洲曾经是主要的战场地区。虽然在第三时期里，战争回到了东南欧，但是在该大陆的其余地方，它却看来不大可能重演。另一方面，在第二时期，与全球对峙并不一定毫无联系的国家间战争仍然在中东和南亚肆虐，直接产生于这场全球对峙的主要战争在东亚和东南亚（韩国和印度支那）发生。与此同时，撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲等地区在第一时期里受战争影响比较少（埃塞俄比亚除外，它迟迟地于1935到1936年遭受意大利的殖民征服），在第二时期成为武装冲突的战场，并在第三时期目睹了尸横遍野和水深火热。20世纪的另外两个战争特点很突出，第一个不如第二个明显。21世纪开始之际，我们不知不觉地进入这样一个世界：武装的行动基本上不再为政府或者其所授权的代理人所掌握，争端的各方除了动用武力的愿望外，毫无共同特征、身份或目标。国家间的战争在第一和第二时期主导了战争的形象，以致现有国家或帝国领土范围内的内战或其它武装冲突在一定程度上被掩盖了。就连十月革命后俄罗斯帝国领土上的内战以及中华帝国崩溃后发生的内战，也能够与国际冲突的框架相吻合，因为它们彼此不可分离。另一方面，拉丁美洲在20世纪里可能并没有军队跨越国界，但它却是重大国内冲突的场所：例如1911年以后在墨西哥、1948年以来在哥伦比亚，以及第二时期在许多中美洲国家，都是如此。人们一般没有认识到，从60年代过半以来，国际战争的数量相当持续地减少了。60年代中期，内部冲突变得比国家之间的冲突更加常见。国内冲突的数量继续激增，一直到90年代才趋于平缓。人们更加熟悉的是战斗员与非战斗员之间区别的被侵蚀。上半个世纪的两次世界大战涉及交战各国的全部人口；战斗员和非战斗员都遭受了损失。然而，在这个世纪进程中，战争的负担越来越多地从武装力量转移到平民身上。平民不仅是其受害者，而且越来越多地成为军事或军事-政治行动的目标。第一次世界大战和第二次之间的对比是显著的：在一战中阵亡者当中，只有5%是平民；二战中这一数字增加到66%。普遍的估计是，今天受战争影响的人们当中有80%到90%是平民。这一比例从冷战结束以来增加了，因为从那时以来的大多数军事行动都不是由义务兵军队，而是由小股正规或非正规部队进行的，在许多情况下所使用的是高技术武器，他们还受到保护，以免承担伤亡的风险。没有理由怀疑，战争的主要受害者仍将是平民。假如战争与和平像这个世纪初那样保持泾渭分明，则20世纪对这两者的著述会容易一些。世纪初，1899年和1907年的海牙公约把战争的规则编入法典。冲突被认为主要发生在主权国家之间，或者如果发生在一个特定国家领土范围内，是在组织充分、因而被其它主权国家公认具有交战地位的各方之间展开。战争当时被认为与和平有显著区别，通过开战时的一项战争宣言和战争结束时的一项和约。军事行动被认为在战斗员之间有明显区别——其特征譬如他们所穿的军装或者显示其属于一支有组织的军队的其它迹象——以及非作战平民。战争被认为是战斗员之间的事情。非战斗员只要可能，就应当在战时受到保护。过去一贯的谅解是，这些公约并不涵盖所有的国内和国际武装冲突，特别是不包括西方国家在国际公认的主权国家管辖范围以外地区进行的帝国扩张所造成的冲突，尽管这些冲突当中的一些（但绝非全部）被称为“战争”。它们也不包括反对地位稳固的国家的大规模叛乱，譬如所谓的“印度兵变”，或者在国家或名义上统治着这些国家的帝国当局有效控制范围之外地区反复发生的武装活动，譬如阿富汗或摩洛哥山区的劫掠和血仇。尽管如此，海牙公约仍然是第一次世界大战中的指导方针。20世纪，这一相对的明确性被混乱所取代。首先，国际冲突与国内冲突之间的界线变得模糊不清，因为20世纪的特点不仅是战争，而且还有革命和帝国的解体。一国内部的革命或解放斗争对国际局势产生影响，在冷战期间尤其如此。相反地，俄罗斯革命后，国家对自己所不支持的别国内部事务的干预变得司空见惯，起码在这样做风险比较小的地方是如此。现在情况仍然是这样。第二，战争与和平之间的明确差别变得含糊不清。除了个别地方外，第二次世界大战既不是以宣战开始，也不是以和约结束。随后的一个时期不论是从旧的意义上讲归类为战争还是和平都很困难，因此“冷战”这个新字眼不得不被发明来描述它。冷战以来状况的模糊性的一个明证就是中东的当前局势。不论“战争”还是“和平”都没有确切描述海湾战争正式结束以来伊拉克的形势——该国仍然几乎每天都遭到外国的轰炸——巴勒斯坦人和以色列人之间的关系也是如此，还有以色列与其邻国、黎巴嫩和叙利亚之间的关系。所有这些都是一种不幸的后遗症，其原因是20世纪的世界大战，还有战争的越来越强大的大众宣传机器，以及彼此不相称的和充满激情的意识形态之间对峙的一个时期。这种对峙给战争带来了相当于在以往的宗教冲突中所见到的正义讨伐的成分。这些冲突与国际实力体系的传统战争不同，越来越多地是为了不可谈判的目的，譬如“无条件投降”而进行。由于战争和胜利都被看作一边倒的，所以对18和19世纪的战争公约所可能强加给交战国能力的任何限制——甚至正式的宣战——都被抛弃。对胜利者坚持自己意志的威力的任何限制也是如此。经验表明，在和平情况下达成的协议可能很容易被撕毁。近年来，使情况进一步复杂化的是，在人们的公开言论中，“战争”一词往往被用来指部署有组织的力量打击被看作反社会的各种国家或国际活动——例如“反黑手党的战争”或“反贩毒组织的战争”。在这些冲突中，武装力量的两个类型的行动被混淆。一个类型——我们称之为“士兵”——用来对付其他武装力量，目的是击败他们。另外一个——我们把它叫做“警察”——努力保持或恢复一个现有的政治实体，一般是一个国家内部必要程度的法律和公共秩序。并不带有任何必要的道德隐含意义的胜利是一种力量的目的；将违法者绳之以法则带有道德的涵义，乃是另外一种力量的目标。然而，这种区分在理论上比在实践中容易做出，战斗中的一名士兵杀人本身并不犯法。但如果爱尔兰共和军的一名成员把自己看作交战一方，尽管正式的英国法律把他视为杀人犯，则情况如何？北爱尔兰的活动是像爱尔兰共和军所认为的那样是一场战争呢，还是在违法者面前为了维持英国的一个省有秩序的治理而做出的努力？由于不仅一支可观的当地警察部队，而且还有一支全国性的军队被动员起来对付爱尔兰共和军达30年左右，所以我们可以断定，这是一场战争，但却是一场像警察行动一样有条不紊地实施的战争，其方式把伤亡和该省中的生活中断减少到最低限度。新世纪开始时和平与战争之间关系的复杂性和混乱情况就是如此。它们得到了美国及其盟国目前正在进行的军事与其它行动的充分诠释。现在像整个20世纪一样，全然没有任何能够控制或解决武装争端的有效的全球权威机构。全球化已经在几乎每个方面取得进展——经济上、技术上、文化上甚至语言上——唯一例外的是，在政治与军事上，各国仍然是唯一的有效权威。虽然正式的国家有200个左右，但是在实践上只有少数举足轻重，其中美国享有占压倒优势的威力。然而从来没有任何国家或帝国足够地庞大、富裕或强大，以维持在世界政治领域中的霸权，就更不用说建立全球范围的政治与军事上的至高无上地位了。一个单一的超级大国无法弥补全球权威的空白，尤其鉴于其效力足以使之获得主要国家的自愿接受、被当作具有约束力的公约的缺乏——例如涉及国际裁军或者武器控制的等等。一些这种权威机构是存在的，特别是联合国、各种法律与金融机构，譬如国际货币基金组织、世界银行和世界贸易组织，以及一些国际法庭。但没有任何一个拥有除了国家之间的协议所赋予它们的之外的、由于强大国家的支持而获得的或者各国自愿接受的有效权力。虽然这一点令人遗憾，但是在可以预见的将来却不大可能改变。由于只有国家才行使实际的权力，所以风险在于，国际机构在试图应付“战争罪行”等违法行为的时候会无效或者缺乏普遍的合法地位。甚至当通过普遍共识而建立世界法庭（例如根据联合国1998年7月17日的罗马协议建立的国际刑事法庭），它们的判断也不一定会被当作合法和有约束力的而接受，只要强国有条件对其加以无视。一个由强国组成的集团可能足够强大，以确保来自比较弱小国家的一些违犯者被送上这些法庭，从而或许在某些地区限制武装冲突的残酷程度。然而这是表明在一个国际体系内权力与影响力的传统行使、而不是国际法行使的实例。然而在21世纪与20世纪之间有重大差别：认为战争是发生在一个划分为处于有效的政府权威之下的领土地区的世界上，这些政府享有对公共权力和强迫手段的垄断，这种想法已经不再适用。它从来都不适用于经历着革命的国家或者四分五裂的帝国的各个分裂部分，但直到最近为止，大多数新的革命或后殖民地政权——中国在1911年和1949年之间是主要的例外——相当迅速地再生，成为基本上有组织的和正常运转的继承政权和国家。然而最近30年左右，由于各种原因，国家丧失了其对武装力量的一贯的垄断、很大一部分从前的稳定性与权力，而且越来越多地还丧失了合法地位或者公认的永久性的根本感觉，这种地位过去使政府得以把税赋与征兵等负担强加给心甘情愿的公民。战争的物质装备现在对民间组织来说普遍地唾手可得，资助非国家战争的手段也是如此，这样一来，国家与非国家组织之间的力量对比已经改变。国家内部的武装冲突已经变得更加严重，并且可能继续几十年，而没有任何胜利或得到解决的真实前景：克什米尔、安哥拉、斯里兰卡、车臣、哥伦比亚。在极端的情况下，譬如在非洲的部分地区，国家可能已经基本不复存在，或者譬如在哥伦比亚，可能不再在本国部分领土上行使政权。甚至在强大和稳定的国家里，也一直难以消除非官方的小型武装集团，譬如英国的爱尔兰共和军及西班牙的巴斯克民族和自由组织。这一局面的新奇性通过一件事实显示出来：地球上最强大的国家在遭受了一场恐怖主义袭击后感到有义务发动一场正式的行动，打击一个很小的国际与非政府组织或网络，而后者既没有领土，也没有一支能够辨认的军队。这些变化如何影响今后一个世纪战争与和平之间的平衡呢？我宁愿不就很有可能爆发的战争或者它们可能的结局做出预测。然而不论武装冲突的结构还是解决的方法都由于主权国家世界体系的转变而发生了深刻变化。苏联的解体意味着，曾经指导了国际关系将近两个世纪、除了明显的例外还对国家之间的冲突行使了一定的控制权的大国体系不复存在。它的消失消除了现在国家间战争和国家对别国事务进行武装干预的一大因素——冷战期间外国领土的边界基本上未曾被军队所跨越。然而即使那时，由于弱小国家的大量存在（尽管这些国家从官方意义上讲是联合国的“主权”成员国），国际体系就已经存在潜在的不稳定性。苏联和欧洲共产党政权的垮台明显地使这种不稳定性增加。在迄今为止稳定的民族国家，譬如英国、西班牙、比利时和意大利，具有不同程度实力的分离主义趋势完全可能进一步加重这种不稳定。与此同时，国际舞台上民间表演者的数量也成倍增加。有什么机制可以用来控制和解决这种冲突吗？从记录看并不令人乐观。90年代的武装冲突没有一次以稳定的解决而告终。由于冷战的机构、假设与言论的持续存在，所以旧的怀疑未曾消亡，从而恶化了东南欧共产主义以后的分崩离析，使得解决一度被称为南斯拉夫的地区问题更加困难。我们要想制订一些控制武装冲突的手段，就必须从意识形态和权力-政治两方面消除这些冷战遗留下来的假设。此外明显的是，美国通过单方的武力来强加一种（任何一种）新的世界秩序的努力都已经失败并且必然继续失败，不管力量关系目前如何朝着有利于美国的方向偏斜，尽管美国得到了一个（必然短命的）联盟的支持。国际体系仍将是多边的，其管制将取决于几个大国达成一致的能力，尽管其中一个国家享有军事上的压倒优势。美国所采取的国际军事行动在多大程度上取决于别国通过谈判的协议已经很清楚。此外也清楚的是，战争的政治解决，甚至美国所参与的战争的解决，都将是通过谈判而不是通过单方的强加于人。以无条件投降而结束的战争的时代在可以预见的将来不会重演。对于现有的国际机构，特别是联合国的角色，也必须重新考虑。虽然它无时不在而且通常是求助的对象，但是在解决争端方面，却没有明确的角色。它的战略与行动始终任凭不断变幻的权力政治所宰割。缺乏一个被真正看作中立的和能够在未经安全理事会事先授权情况下采取行动的国际中介，这一直是争端处理体系中最明显的空白。冷战结束以来，对和平与战争的处理一直是即兴的。在最好情况下，譬如在巴尔干地区，武装冲突被外部武装干预制止，敌对行动结束时的现状由第三方的军队来维持。武装冲突未来控制的一个通用模型能否从这种干预中产生还不清楚。21世纪中战争与和平之间的平衡将不会取决于制订比较有效的谈判和解决机制，而是要看内部稳定和军事冲突的避免情况如何。除了少数例外，现有的国家之间的、过去导致了武装冲突的对抗与摩擦今天造成这种局面的可能性减小了。例如现在的国际边界问题上的政府间燃眉之急的冲突相对来说很少。另一方面，内部冲突很容易演变成暴力性的：战争的主要危险存在于外国或者外部军事势力对冲突的卷入。与贫困、严重不平等和经济不稳定的国家相比，经济蒸蒸日上、稳定而且商品在居民当中比较公平地分配的国家，其社会和政治局势动荡的可能性较小。然而，避免或控制国内武装暴力活动的情况更加直接地取决于国家政府的实力和政绩，及其在多数居民眼中的合法地位。今天没有任何政府能够对非武装民众的存在或者欧洲很多地方人们所长期熟悉的公共秩序的程度，认为理所当然。今天没有任何政府有条件无视或者清除掉国内的武装少数民族。尽管如此，世界越来越分裂为能够对自己领土和公民加以有效管理的国家以及为数越来越多的领土，其边界是得到官方承认的国际界线，国家的政府则从虚弱和腐败的到荡然无存的都有。这些地区所酝酿的是流血的内部斗争和国际冲突，譬如我们在非洲中部所见到。然而这种地区没有持续改善的即刻前景，如果动荡不定的国家的中央政府进一步被削弱或者世界版图进一步巴尔干化，则无疑会加重武装冲突的危险。一项尝试性的预测：21世纪的战争不大可能像20世纪的那样血腥。但造成不成比例的苦难与损失的武装暴力仍将在世界很多地方无处不在和泛滥成灾。一个和平的世纪的前景是遥远的。 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[ 此帖被墓薏在2013-10-16 23:36重新编辑 ]